While working under Linux (yes, I'm a dual booter, but I'm sure you already figured that one out) I came across a piece of text I wrote over a year ago on Linux on the desktop. Although I could add a few examples and might change a few others, I decided to publish the article unchanged (also because I am lazy...)
Viewpoint on Linux@Desktop
Linux and applications based on it have already proven themselves in the server market. Unknowingly thousands of Windows desktops may already print and store files through Linux servers, thanks to Samba. Even Microsoft's .net will soon have its open source alternative in mono. However, the desktop is still a Microsoft stronghold. Question is whether Linux will ever be able to bring down the walls of this fortress. Working from the ideas of Clayton Christensen (Innovator's Dilemma) and Geoffrey Moore (Crossing the Chasm) one may conclude that it is not impossible, although the Linux camp will have to play their cards right and take away the remaining pain points.
Let's first look at the appeal of Linux for three different types of users; corporate users, hobbyists and non-hobbyists aka Joe Sixpack. [corporate users] Computer hobbyist tend to like Linux for the fact that it offers them more control over their system; it's easier to tweak the system and to tune it to their personal needs and preferences. Furthermore, they get access to a broad range of free or cheaper alternatives to major applications and (programming) tools. Some of these tools and applications are actually better and offer more functionality than commercial and/or proprietary ones. Of course personal sentiments and anti-Microsoft attitudes also contribute to their preference for Linux. A current drawback is the fact that upon release not all hardware is supported as interface and driver specifications are not 'open'. Although the real hobbyists will try to figure it out themselves and write an driver and share it with the rest of the community, others may choose the safe option and go for the main platform that is always supported by any vendor of 'networked' consumer electronics.
But why would the non-hobbyist go with Linux? One reason may be that computers with pre-installed Linux are cheaper than their Windows brethren and instead of having to buy expensive commercial software packages they have access to free or cheaper alternatives for most major applications. Given the recent wave of viruses and worms, the fact that Linux is less virus-prone may also chip in. This may, however, change once Linux gets more critical mass and it becomes more attractive for developers to write viruses and worms for this platform (not for everyone as Linux kernel is believed to be less 'leaky' than Microsoft's). Joe Sixpack's major objection against Linux is still its applications' incompatibility with Windows when it comes to the exchange of documents between the two platforms. Furthermore, using it to serve the web, Joe may still run into situations where content is not available to him as it is only offered in a closed, proprietary Windows format which is not yet supported under Linux (Wimbledon scoreboard and internet radio). But if the general trend towards the use of open data formats continues and basic support (98%) for proprietary formats through initiatives like Crossover Office, Wine, VMware, etc. is perfected, Joe will have ever more incentives to go with Linux.
Crossing the Chasm – The current Linux community is primarily made up of techies. But as the needs and experiences of these innovators do not match those of early adoptors, Linux first needs to cross the chasm between them. This will require that Linux offers an ease-of-use and no-frills maintenance experience similar to what users have come to know while working with Windows and Apple. Furthermore, the exchange of data and documents with users of other platforms will be key to the widespread adoption of Linux by early adopters and early majority. Initiatives like Crossover Office, Wine and VMware contribute to this, as well as easy to install and maintain distributions like Linspire and Vindalux Gentoo. These initiatives all contribute to Linux crossing the chasm over the next few years.
Innovator's Dilemma – From a functional and ease-of-use perspective a Linux desktop underperfoms relative to Windows and Apple, but the developments and initiatives named above will make that Linux will soon reach the minimal requirement level upon which it becomes a true alternative to Windows and Apple. Once it reaches this level, the cost argument will become more important, which will benefit Linux even more.
Hence, I believe that Linux really stands a good chance to break Microsoft's hegemony on the desktop. Once similar functionality and ease-of-use is offered at different price points, the average consumer will go for the lowest cost option, being Linux. However, before we get to this point all efforts should be focused on raising the platform's ease-of-use (aimed at Joe Sixpack instead of techies) and addressing incompatibility issues.
Frans van Camp
July 2004
Postscript: Based on my recent posts you may come to think that I am more of an IT consultant than a strategy consultant. Nothing is further from the truth, however. As an engineer by training I still have a strong personal interest in these matters, whereas in my daily work I don't deal with things like this at all.
Viewpoint on Linux@Desktop
Linux and applications based on it have already proven themselves in the server market. Unknowingly thousands of Windows desktops may already print and store files through Linux servers, thanks to Samba. Even Microsoft's .net will soon have its open source alternative in mono. However, the desktop is still a Microsoft stronghold. Question is whether Linux will ever be able to bring down the walls of this fortress. Working from the ideas of Clayton Christensen (Innovator's Dilemma) and Geoffrey Moore (Crossing the Chasm) one may conclude that it is not impossible, although the Linux camp will have to play their cards right and take away the remaining pain points.
Let's first look at the appeal of Linux for three different types of users; corporate users, hobbyists and non-hobbyists aka Joe Sixpack. [corporate users] Computer hobbyist tend to like Linux for the fact that it offers them more control over their system; it's easier to tweak the system and to tune it to their personal needs and preferences. Furthermore, they get access to a broad range of free or cheaper alternatives to major applications and (programming) tools. Some of these tools and applications are actually better and offer more functionality than commercial and/or proprietary ones. Of course personal sentiments and anti-Microsoft attitudes also contribute to their preference for Linux. A current drawback is the fact that upon release not all hardware is supported as interface and driver specifications are not 'open'. Although the real hobbyists will try to figure it out themselves and write an driver and share it with the rest of the community, others may choose the safe option and go for the main platform that is always supported by any vendor of 'networked' consumer electronics.
But why would the non-hobbyist go with Linux? One reason may be that computers with pre-installed Linux are cheaper than their Windows brethren and instead of having to buy expensive commercial software packages they have access to free or cheaper alternatives for most major applications. Given the recent wave of viruses and worms, the fact that Linux is less virus-prone may also chip in. This may, however, change once Linux gets more critical mass and it becomes more attractive for developers to write viruses and worms for this platform (not for everyone as Linux kernel is believed to be less 'leaky' than Microsoft's). Joe Sixpack's major objection against Linux is still its applications' incompatibility with Windows when it comes to the exchange of documents between the two platforms. Furthermore, using it to serve the web, Joe may still run into situations where content is not available to him as it is only offered in a closed, proprietary Windows format which is not yet supported under Linux (Wimbledon scoreboard and internet radio). But if the general trend towards the use of open data formats continues and basic support (98%) for proprietary formats through initiatives like Crossover Office, Wine, VMware, etc. is perfected, Joe will have ever more incentives to go with Linux.
Crossing the Chasm – The current Linux community is primarily made up of techies. But as the needs and experiences of these innovators do not match those of early adoptors, Linux first needs to cross the chasm between them. This will require that Linux offers an ease-of-use and no-frills maintenance experience similar to what users have come to know while working with Windows and Apple. Furthermore, the exchange of data and documents with users of other platforms will be key to the widespread adoption of Linux by early adopters and early majority. Initiatives like Crossover Office, Wine and VMware contribute to this, as well as easy to install and maintain distributions like Linspire and Vindalux Gentoo. These initiatives all contribute to Linux crossing the chasm over the next few years.
Innovator's Dilemma – From a functional and ease-of-use perspective a Linux desktop underperfoms relative to Windows and Apple, but the developments and initiatives named above will make that Linux will soon reach the minimal requirement level upon which it becomes a true alternative to Windows and Apple. Once it reaches this level, the cost argument will become more important, which will benefit Linux even more.
Hence, I believe that Linux really stands a good chance to break Microsoft's hegemony on the desktop. Once similar functionality and ease-of-use is offered at different price points, the average consumer will go for the lowest cost option, being Linux. However, before we get to this point all efforts should be focused on raising the platform's ease-of-use (aimed at Joe Sixpack instead of techies) and addressing incompatibility issues.
Frans van Camp
July 2004
Postscript: Based on my recent posts you may come to think that I am more of an IT consultant than a strategy consultant. Nothing is further from the truth, however. As an engineer by training I still have a strong personal interest in these matters, whereas in my daily work I don't deal with things like this at all.
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